Awaiting fresh ingest
Public early warning
Zambia Power Stress Index
A public signal for short-horizon power stress in Zambia.
Tracking Kariba hydrology, load-shedding evidence, and macro pressure so the state of the grid is legible at a glance.
System health degradedHydrology ingest staleLabel evidence liveModel layer live
Queue clear
Inference live signal
Most recent published dashboard update
zra_hydrology is future-dated; boz_fx is 2 days behind
Use it for: short-horizon early warning over days to weeks, not seasonal prediction. Update rhythm: source ingest runs daily where connected; the PSI refreshes when a governed inference run is published. Scope today: Stage 1 PSI monitoring is live and publishing; macro data rails are live for context, while the macro model remains gated until it beats baseline. Full methodology
Read the methodologyLive where upstream data is current and a governed PSI publication is available.
20.9%
Kariba usable storage
Sourced from Zambezi River Authority daily hydrology readings.
78
Evidence base
78 evidence rows in the current archive. Review queue clear.
Elevated
FX pressure signal
Current external-pressure signal: Elevated.
Inference live
Model readiness
Latest published PSI reading is current and suitable for operational monitoring.
Data adequacy
Stale — figures below describe an older saved training snapshot, not necessarily the model behind today's PSI card.
Aligned rows65
Overlap dates65
Missingness (mean / max)5% / 22%
Quality gatesMet
Under-threshold override—
What to know before using this signal
- Daily severity — Each day is represented by one resolved severity state, not a full hour-by-hour outage schedule.
- Current scope — This page is strongest as a power-stress monitor. Macro transmission signals become decision-grade only when the macro layer is published as live.
- Coverage matters — Confidence depends on how much reviewed label history overlaps with feature history in the published training window.
- Governance strip timing — Model & governance and data adequacy read the last
dashboard_training_snapshotpublish. If that predates a new governed inference, the hero PSI can be current while those panels still show an older preflight or train until the snapshot is republished.
Trajectory
21-day PSI pulse
Mar 08Mar 18Mar 28
Evidence mix
Historical severity distribution
Share of classified days across the current evidence base.
Class 0 • restored / stable supply4 days5%
Class 1 • scheduled partial cuts27 days35%
Class 2 • heavy unscheduled cuts39 days50%
Class 3 • crisis-level outages8 days10%
Latest updates
System activity
Recent pipeline and model events surfaced for transparency.
Evidence base refreshed
78 evidence rows are classified and review-ready.
ZMW/USD observation updated
Mid rate is 18.9395.
Latest PSI reading published
PSI 0.65 · worsening · confidence MEDIUM.
System health degraded
zra_hydrology is future-dated; boz_fx is 2 days behind