Latest ZRA observation within contract
Public hydrology monitor
Zambia Power Stress Index
A present-state reading of stress in Zambia's Kariba hydrology channel.
Kariba hydrology drives PSI; load-shedding evidence and macro pressure are shown as separate context, not PSI forecasts.
System health alertHydrology within contractLabel evidence pendingModel inference experimental
Queue clear
Latest inference live signal
Most recent published dashboard update
2 of 9 rails degraded: zesco_labels: Unavailable (38 days behind); grid_context_signals: Unavailable (679 days behind).
Use it for: a present-state reading of Kariba hydrology stress, not a grid forecast or prediction. Update rhythm: source ingest runs daily where connected; the PSI refreshes when a governed inference run is published. Scope today: Stage 1 PSI monitoring is live and publishing; macro data rails are live for context, while the macro model remains gated until it beats baseline. Full methodology · Energy Stress Engine path
Read the methodologyLive where upstream data is current and a governed PSI publication is available.
Institutional collaboration
NISIR and CopperCloud sign Letter of Intent
CopperCloud and Zambia's National Institute for Scientific and Industrial Research have signed a Letter of Intent and NDA. The parties intend to define a bounded first pilot, with scientific review of the developing Zambia Energy Stress Engine proposed as the initial focus. Scientific validation has not yet been completed.
43.98%
Kariba usable storage
Latest ZRA observation is 43.98% usable storage and inside the rail contract.
83
Evidence base
0 candidate signals queued for severity classification.
Stable
FX pressure signal
Stable means the BoZ mid rate moved -0.07% versus the previous observation, inside the -2% to +3% neutral band. Latest BoZ business-day observation is inside the rail contract.
Experimental(LOW)
Model readiness
Latest reading is low-confidence and should be used as an early signal, not a decision trigger.
Data adequacy
Coverage snapshot for the latest published training run.
Aligned rows65
Overlap dates65
Missingness (mean / max)5% / 22%
Quality gatesMet
Under-threshold override—
What to know before using this signal
- Daily severity — Each day is represented by one resolved severity state, not a full hour-by-hour outage schedule.
- Current scope — This page is strongest as a power-stress monitor. Macro transmission signals become decision-grade only when the macro layer is published as live.
- Coverage matters — Confidence depends on how much reviewed label history overlaps with feature history in the published training window.
Trajectory
21-day PSI pulse
10 Aug20 Aug30 Aug
Evidence mix
Historical severity distribution
Distribution of reviewed historical evidence labels in the current archive. This is training/review context, not forecast performance.
Class 0 • restored / stable supply7 days8%
Class 1 • scheduled partial cuts29 days35%
Class 2 • heavy unscheduled cuts39 days47%
Class 3 • crisis-level outages8 days10%
Latest updates
System activity
Recent pipeline and model events surfaced for transparency.
Kariba hydrology refreshed
Latest ZRA observation is 43.98% usable storage and inside the rail contract.
ZMW/USD observation updated
Mid rate is 18.9857 versus 18.9982 previously.
Latest PSI reading published
PSI 0.43 · Hydrology stress: stable · confidence LOW.
System health alert
2 of 9 rails degraded: zesco_labels: Unavailable (38 days behind); grid_context_signals: Unavailable (679 days behind).