Latest ZRA observation within contract
Public early warning
Zambia Power Stress Index
A public signal for short-horizon power stress in Zambia.
Tracking Kariba hydrology, load-shedding evidence, and macro pressure so the state of the grid is legible at a glance.
System health alertHydrology within contractLabel evidence pendingModel publication stale
2 awaiting review
Last published PSI is stale
Most recent published dashboard update
2 of 9 rails degraded: zesco_labels: Unavailable (21 days behind); psi_published_inference: Unavailable (3 days behind).
Use it for: short-horizon early warning over days to weeks, not seasonal prediction. Update rhythm: source ingest runs daily where connected; the PSI refreshes when a governed inference run is published. Scope today: Stage 1 PSI monitoring is live and publishing; macro data rails are live for context, while the macro model remains gated until it beats baseline. Full methodology
Read the methodologyLive where upstream data is current and a governed PSI publication is available.
48.09%
Kariba usable storage
Latest ZRA observation is 48.09% usable storage and inside the rail contract.
82
Evidence base
2 candidate signals queued for severity classification.
Stable
FX pressure signal
Stable means the BoZ mid rate moved +0.18% versus the previous observation, inside the -2% to +3% neutral band. Latest BoZ business-day observation is inside the rail contract.
Stale(LOW)
Model readiness
Latest governed PSI publication is stale; shown as of Jun 28, 09:05 AM UTC until a fresh row is published.
Data adequacy
Coverage snapshot for the latest published training run.
Aligned rows65
Overlap dates65
Missingness (mean / max)5% / 22%
Quality gatesMet
Under-threshold override—
What to know before using this signal
- Daily severity — Each day is represented by one resolved severity state, not a full hour-by-hour outage schedule.
- Current scope — This page is strongest as a power-stress monitor. Macro transmission signals become decision-grade only when the macro layer is published as live.
- Coverage matters — Confidence depends on how much reviewed label history overlaps with feature history in the published training window.
Trajectory
21-day PSI pulse
Jun 07Jun 18Jun 28
Evidence mix
Historical severity distribution
Share of classified days across the current evidence base.
Class 0 • restored / stable supply5 days6%
Class 1 • scheduled partial cuts29 days36%
Class 2 • heavy unscheduled cuts39 days48%
Class 3 • crisis-level outages8 days10%
Latest updates
System activity
Recent pipeline and model events surfaced for transparency.
Kariba hydrology refreshed
Latest ZRA observation is 48.09% usable storage and inside the rail contract.
ZMW/USD observation updated
Mid rate is 18.0836 versus 18.0509 previously.
Latest PSI reading published
PSI 0.38 · Hydrology stress: stable · confidence LOW.
System health alert
2 of 9 rails degraded: zesco_labels: Unavailable (21 days behind); psi_published_inference: Unavailable (3 days behind).