Product path
PSI now · Energy Stress Engine next
ZambiaMacro publishes a live present-state monitor today. A broader Zambia Energy Stress Engine is under construction. This page separates those two truths so visitors do not confuse a hydrology reading with a national forecast.
- What exists today
- What ZESE is building toward
- How forecasting credibility will be earned
- Current maturity
- Review and proof boundaries
What exists today
The Power Stress Index (PSI) is a present-state reading of stress in Zambia's Kariba hydrology channel. It is the live public product on the Monitor. Load-shedding evidence and macro rails appear as separate context. PSI is not a national-grid forecast, seasonal climate prediction, address-level outage map, or complete energy-adequacy model.
Source freshness, degraded rails, confidence flags, and known limitations remain visible on the Monitor. See the methodology for computation, label doctrine, and publication nuance.
What ZESE is building toward
The Zambia Energy Stress Engine (ZESE) is CopperCloud's flagship national intelligence product under development: a physics-led, probabilistic energy-adequacy system whose future public outputs are meant to be continuously scored and auditable. ZESE is not live as a forecast product. PSI remains one hydrology channel inside that broader architecture — necessary, not sufficient.
The intended public stack includes:
- Hydrology — reservoir and basin state (PSI is the live channel here).
- Generation availability — hydro, thermal, and variable generation constraints as they become governable.
- Imports — firm interconnector and SAPP-related availability context.
- Demand — national demand baselines and growth scenarios once sourced and reviewed.
- Operational evidence — schedules, notices, and event settlement evidence with explicit quality classes.
- Prospective scoring — forecasts issued before outcomes, then scored on a public scoreboard after windows close.
Ambient alerting and site-level exposure translation are later product layers. They are not claimed as live features here.
How forecasting credibility will be earned
The word forecast is reserved. Public Forecast-class language requires more than a present-state monitor: governed targets, prospective issuance before outcomes open, and a scored public track record. Until those gates pass per target, future-dated work stays private shadow or unpublished.
Methodology for the live PSI reading remains on the Methodology page.
Technical promotion criteria
At minimum, promotion toward public forecast wording expects: a ratified forecast contract; defined targets and settlement rules; data-adequacy review for the target; models that beat stated benchmarks on held-out or prospective evaluation; prospective issuance into a registry before outcome windows open; and a path to a public scoreboard that can show error, calibration, model version, and correction history.
Current maturity
Honest states
These labels describe engineering and publication maturity. They are not marketing stages and do not imply institutional approval.
- Live
- Public PSI hydrology monitor, source/rail health reporting, confidence flags, and methodology.
- Built
- Governed forecast contract, forecast registry, and archived evidence-capture foundations for later shadow scoring.
- In development
- Supply and demand baselines, physical adequacy models, and additional Layer-1 observation rails.
- Not yet public
- National energy-adequacy forecasts, prospective public forecast issuances, and a public performance scoreboard.