ZambiaMacro

Product path

PSI now · Energy Stress Engine next

ZambiaMacro publishes a live present-state monitor today. A broader Zambia Energy Stress Engine is under construction. This page separates those two truths so visitors do not confuse a hydrology reading with a national forecast.

The engine at a glance

  • Live
  • Built
  • In development
  • Not yet public

  1. Physical system state

    Observed or carefully reconstructed facts, each with source, observation time and quality.

    • Kariba hydrologyLive
    • Basin rainfallLive
    • Upstream river flowsLive
    • Archived source captureBuilt
    • Generation asset baselineIn development
    • Demand baselineIn development
    • Imports and interconnectorsIn development

  2. Forecast engine

    Separate models with explicit responsibilities; simple physical models before any deep learning.

    • PSI hydrology channel (present state)Live
    • Forecast contractBuilt
    • Forecast registryBuilt
    • Physical adequacy modelsIn development
    • National energy-adequacy forecastsNot yet public

  3. Exposure and decisions

    National stress translated into site-level production risk and public planning implications.

    • Site-level exposure translationNot yet public

  4. Ambient intelligence

    The system watches continuously and interrupts selectively when a decision changes.

    • Rail-health and staleness disclosureLive
    • Public alerting and briefingsNot yet public

Layer 1 feeds Layer 2; Layers 3 and 4 translate engine output into decisions and interruptions. The public Monitor shows the live parts of Layers 1, 2 and 4.

  1. What exists today
  2. What ZESE is building toward
  3. How forecasting credibility will be earned
  4. Current maturity
  5. Review and proof boundaries

What exists today

The Power Stress Index (PSI) is a present-state reading of stress in Zambia's Kariba hydrology channel. It is the live public product on the Monitor. Load-shedding evidence and macro rails appear as separate context. PSI is not a national-grid forecast, seasonal climate prediction, address-level outage map, or complete energy-adequacy model.

Source freshness, degraded rails, confidence flags, and known limitations remain visible on the Monitor. See the methodology for computation, label doctrine, and publication nuance.

What ZESE is building toward

The Zambia Energy Stress Engine (ZESE) is CopperCloud's flagship national intelligence product under development: a physics-led, probabilistic energy-adequacy system whose future public outputs are meant to be continuously scored and auditable. ZESE is not live as a forecast product. PSI remains one hydrology channel inside that broader architecture — necessary, not sufficient.

The intended public stack includes:

  • Hydrology — reservoir and basin state (PSI is the live channel here).
  • Generation availability — hydro, thermal, and variable generation constraints as they become governable.
  • Imports — firm interconnector and SAPP-related availability context.
  • Demand — national demand baselines and growth scenarios once sourced and reviewed.
  • Operational evidence — schedules, notices, and event settlement evidence with explicit quality classes.
  • Prospective scoring — forecasts issued before outcomes, then scored on a public scoreboard after windows close.

Ambient alerting and site-level exposure translation are later product layers. They are not claimed as live features here.

How forecasting credibility will be earned

The word forecast is reserved. Public Forecast-class language requires more than a present-state monitor: governed targets, prospective issuance before outcomes open, and a scored public track record. Until those gates pass per target, future-dated work stays private shadow or unpublished.

  1. Forecast contractTargets, horizons, benchmarks and promotion rules written down before any model.Built
  2. Forecast registryAppend-only record that fixes each issuance and its inputs before the outcome exists.Built
  3. Benchmarks and data adequacyEach target measured against simple baselines on data that was available at the time.In development
  4. Prospective issuanceForecasts recorded ahead of their outcome windows, with scoring due dates.Not yet public
  5. Public scoreboardError, calibration, model version and corrections shown for every closed window.Not yet public
  6. Forecast wordingOnly a target that passes its promotion criteria may be called a forecast.Not yet public

Methodology for the live PSI reading remains on the Methodology page.

Technical promotion criteria

At minimum, promotion toward public forecast wording expects: a ratified forecast contract; defined targets and settlement rules; data-adequacy review for the target; models that beat stated benchmarks on held-out or prospective evaluation; prospective issuance into a registry before outcome windows open; and a path to a public scoreboard that can show error, calibration, model version, and correction history.

Current maturity

Honest states

These labels describe engineering and publication maturity. They are not marketing stages and do not imply institutional approval.

Live
Public PSI hydrology monitor, source/rail health reporting, confidence flags, and methodology.
Built
Governed forecast contract, forecast registry, and archived evidence-capture foundations for later shadow scoring.
In development
Supply and demand baselines, physical adequacy models, and additional Layer-1 observation rails.
Not yet public
National energy-adequacy forecasts, prospective public forecast issuances, and a public performance scoreboard.